MLB / mlb / live
SDP 3 / LAD 4SDPSan Diego Padres42%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers58%
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterMichael KingProbable
Model pickLAD moneyline58%Model 20260629_auto
LADHome starterShohei OhtaniProbable
SDP42%ML +215
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability70%Selected moneyline pick
LAD58%ML -265
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Michael KingSDP starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betonlineag / U +110 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Shohei OhtaniLAD starter / home
Projected K6.6Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -142 fanduel / U +115 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 6.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.577%over
O 5.563%over
O 6.548%over
O 7.534%over
O 8.523%over
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.55%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+215 / -265SDP / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -106 / U -115
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total