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BAL 3 / LAD 2
BALBaltimore Orioles38%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers62%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterTrevor RogersProbable
Model pickLAD moneyline62%Model 20260616_auto
LADHome starterYoshinobu YamamotoProbable
BAL38%ML +222
Base model probability62%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability70%Selected moneyline pick
LAD62%ML -278

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap7.9 pts

Market heavily favors LAD at 70.3% vs model's 62.4%. Yamamoto (2.52 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) vs Rogers (5.86 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) is a large pitching gap. Model's 9.40 total vs market 8.0 suggests LAD offensive upside. BAL's 3.7 RPG offense limits variance. Model side aligns with fundamentals but market is more confident.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Trevor RogersBAL starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -155 betrivers / U +133 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD starter / home
Projected K6.6Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +115 draftkings / U -135 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 7.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.577%over
O 5.563%over
O 6.548%under
O 7.534%under
O 8.523%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+222 / -278BAL / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -116 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total