sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

TBR 3 / LAD 4
TBRTampa Bay Rays40%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers60%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterNick MartinezConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
LADHome starterEric LauerConfirmed
TBR40%ML +155
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
LAD60%ML -186

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.2 pts

Model favors LAD at 60.2% vs market 58.8%, but Lauer's 5.47 ERA in 52.7 IP is a clear weakness against TBR's .802 OPS offense. Martinez (2.43 ERA, 77.7 IP) is the better pitcher with sustainable results. Model's total of 8.84 sits below market 9.0; lean under given Martinez's form and LAD's home-park suppression history.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.8
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Nick MartinezTBR starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 betmgm / U -130 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%over
O 4.528%over
O 5.515%over
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Eric LauerLAD starter / home
Projected K3.4Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 betmgm / U -144 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.544%over
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+155 / -186TBR / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -103 / U -117
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total