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TBR 0 / LAD 1
TBRTampa Bay Rays51%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers49%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterDrew RasmussenProbable
Model pickTBR moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
LADHome starterJustin WrobleskiProbable
TBR51%ML +120
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
LAD49%ML -145

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.6 pts

Market favors LAD 58.6% vs model's TBR 51.1%. Ace matchup (both sub-3 ERA) argues tight game and under 8.0. Model sees LAD short home xwOBA strength but picks TBR; likely overweighting recent road noise. Lean LAD on market consensus.

Large model-market gapace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Drew RasmussenTBR starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 bovada / U -134 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Justin WrobleskiLAD starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +134 fanduel / U -164 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+120 / -145TBR / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -112 / U -108
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total