MLB / mlb / live
PHI 4 / LAD 3PHIPhiladelphia Phillies52%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers48%
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterJesús Luzardo
Model pickPHI moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
LADHome starterRoki Sasaki
PHI52%ML +105
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
LAD48%ML -125
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanOver
Model-market gap5.4 pts
Model picks PHI 52% but market has LAD at 54%. PHI's 2.6 RPG (.570 OPS) is historically weak; offense_defense_mismatch flag fires because model fades the vastly superior LAD lineup. Luzardo's 9.0 ERA in 6 IP screams small sample. Sasaki stats missing but LAD offense alone justifies home lean. Total 9.03 vs market 8.5 is tight; lean over given LAD's 5.4 RPG.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+105 / -125PHI / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total