MLB / mlb / live
PHI 2 / LAD 4PHIPhiladelphia Phillies49%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers51%
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterZack Wheeler
Model pickLAD moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
LADHome starterJustin Wrobleski
PHI49%ML -104
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
LAD51%ML -117
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanOver
Model-market gap0.3 pts
Missing all pitcher stats (ERA, WHIP, K/9, IP) and park factor creates unacceptable uncertainty for a side pick. Model and market both see coin flip (~51%). Total: model 9.26 vs market 8.0 suggests value on over, but without pitcher peripherals or venue context, confidence is low.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-104 / -117PHI / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -112 / U -109
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total