MLB / mlb / live
COL 1 / LAD 4COLColorado Rockies36%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers64%
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterTomoyuki Sugano
Model pickLAD moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
LADHome starterShohei Ohtani
COL36%ML +332
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability78%Selected moneyline pick
LAD64%ML -432
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap13.7 pts
Model has LAD at 64% but market implies 78%. That 14-point gap flags structural risk. Pitcher stats are null for both Ohtani and Sugano despite 10 starts each—can't verify ace status or assess total drivers. COL's .531 OPS and 3.5 RPG suggest blowout risk, but without pitcher data or park factor I can't justify overriding the market's strong LAD lean.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.4
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+332 / -432COL / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -107
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total