MLB / mlb / live
SFG 2 / LAD 5SFGSan Francisco Giants40%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers60%
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterLanden Roupp
Model pickLAD moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
LADHome starterEmmet Sheehan
SFG40%ML +146
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
LAD60%ML -176
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.1 pts
Sheehan has logged only 3.1 IP across 10 'starts' (likely bulk reliever role) with a 10.8 ERA. Roupp has no recorded stats despite 10 starts. No park factor available. SFG's .388 OPS is implausibly low for 43 games (likely data error). Model and market align on LAD -167 vs 60% implied, but pitcher data is structurally unreliable for both sides.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.7
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+146 / -176SFG / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -112 / U -115
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total