MLB / mlb / live
SFG 6 / LAD 2SFGSan Francisco Giants36%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers64%
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterAdrian Houser
Model pickLAD moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
LADHome starterYoshinobu Yamamoto
SFG36%ML +242
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability72%Selected moneyline pick
LAD64%ML -302
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.9 pts
Market has LAD at 73.5% vs model's 64%, a 9-point gap flagged as large disagreement. SFG's .388 OPS (41 games) is catastrophically bad, driving market confidence. Yamamoto 3.0 ERA in 6.0 IP is tiny sample but market knows something model doesn't. Model total 8.69 vs market 9.0 argues slight under lean given SFG offense crater.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.6
Projected total8.7
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+242 / -302SFG / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
29 books28 ML21 run line20 total