MLB / mlb / live
MIA 2 / LAD 1MIAMiami Marlins36%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers64%
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterJanson Junk
Model pickLAD moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
LADHome starterShohei Ohtani
MIA36%ML +240
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
LAD64%ML -295
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.5 pts
Model has LAD at 64% but market implies 73% — an 8.5pp gap flagged as large disagreement. Ohtani's data is fallback quality (only 6.0 IP logged over 10 starts suggests incomplete stats). Junk has no season ERA/WHIP/K9 resolved. With both pitcher profiles unreliable, I defer to the sharper market price. LAD should win but comparison is priced out.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.5
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+240 / -295MIA / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total