MLB / mlb / live
MIA 2 / LAD 1MIAMiami Marlins36%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers64%
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterJanson Junk
Model pickLAD moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
LADHome starterShohei Ohtani
MIA36%ML +240
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability72%Selected moneyline pick
LAD64%ML -295
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap7.7 pts
Model has LAD at 64% but market implies 73% — an 8.5pp gap flagged as large disagreement. Ohtani's data is fallback quality (only 6.0 IP logged over 10 starts suggests incomplete stats). Junk has no season ERA/WHIP/K9 resolved. With both pitcher profiles unreliable, I defer to the sharper market price. LAD should win but comparison is priced out.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.5
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+240 / -295MIA / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total