MLB / mlb / live
MIA 3 / LAD 2MIAMiami Marlins36%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers64%
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterSandy Alcantara
Model pickLAD moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
LADHome starterTyler Glasnow
MIA36%ML +185
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
LAD64%ML -226
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.9 pts
Model has LAD at 64%, market at 67% — reasonable convergence. Glasnow's 3.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is microscopic sample; Alcantara's 0.00 ERA in 7.0 IP even smaller. Ace matchup flag fires but neither pitcher has meaningful season data (60-70 IP needed). Market total 8.5 vs model 8.80 is tight. Pass on total given thin pitcher samples.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin1.3
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+185 / -226MIA / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
30 books28 ML23 run line20 total