MLB / mlb / live
MIA 3 / LAD 2MIAMiami Marlins36%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers64%
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterSandy Alcantara
Model pickLAD moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
LADHome starterTyler Glasnow
MIA36%ML +185
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability66%Selected moneyline pick
LAD64%ML -226
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap2.3 pts
Model has LAD at 64%, market at 67% — reasonable convergence. Glasnow's 3.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is microscopic sample; Alcantara's 0.00 ERA in 7.0 IP even smaller. Ace matchup flag fires but neither pitcher has meaningful season data (60-70 IP needed). Market total 8.5 vs model 8.80 is tight. Pass on total given thin pitcher samples.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin1.3
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+185 / -226MIA / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
30 books28 ML23 run line20 total