MLB / mlb / live
MIA 4 / LAD 5MIAMiami Marlins42%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers58%
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterChris Paddack
Model pickLAD moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
LADHome starterYoshinobu Yamamoto
MIA42%ML +245
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability72%Selected moneyline pick
LAD58%ML -304
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap14.1 pts
Model has LAD at 58% while Pinnacle implies 73% — a massive 15-point gap. Missing Paddack data (null ERA/IP/WHIP) suggests pitcher_data_fallback should have fired. Market knows something model doesn't; defer to -298 price. Total model at 9.12 vs market 8.5 aligns with Statcast batted-ball metrics driving the total prediction. Lean over but low confidence on moneyline given information asymmetry.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+245 / -304MIA / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-136)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
30 books28 ML23 run line20 total