MLB / mlb / live
MIA 4 / LAD 5MIAMiami Marlins42%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers58%
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterChris Paddack
Model pickLAD moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
LADHome starterYoshinobu Yamamoto
MIA42%ML +245
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
LAD58%ML -304
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time15.1 pts
Model has LAD at 58% while Pinnacle implies 73% — a massive 15-point gap. Missing Paddack data (null ERA/IP/WHIP) suggests pitcher_data_fallback should have fired. Market knows something model doesn't; defer to -298 price. Total model at 9.12 vs market 8.5 aligns with Statcast batted-ball metrics driving the total prediction. Lean over but low confidence on moneyline given information asymmetry.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+245 / -304MIA / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-136)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
30 books28 ML23 run line20 total