sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

MIN 8 / LAA 0
MINMinnesota Twins47%
LAALos Angeles Angels53%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MINAway starterDean KremerConfirmed
Model pickLAA moneyline53%Model 20260914_auto
LAAHome starterRyan JohnsonConfirmed
MIN47%ML -115
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
LAA53%ML -104

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.3 pts

Model has LAA at 53.1% vs market implied 48.8% — a modest gap I can't justify pushing on. Both starters are below average (Johnson 4.88 ERA/1.34 WHIP, Kremer 5.35 ERA/1.24 WHIP) in a neutral park (PF 1.01). Model's 8.8-run total sits 0.8 above the 8.0 line, but Minnesota's 3.1 RPG and .673 OPS caps the upside, so no total view.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.6
Market total8.3
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Dean KremerMIN starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -108 draftkings / U -110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%over
O 7.519%over
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Ryan JohnsonLAA starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +112 fanduel / U -125 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-115 / -104MIN / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.3O -106 / U -122
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total