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PHI 5 / LAA 2
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies55%
LAALos Angeles Angels45%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterZack WheelerConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline55%Model 20260824_auto
LAAHome starterYusei KikuchiConfirmed
PHI55%ML -170
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
LAA45%ML +144

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.0 pts

Market prices PHI near 65% while the model sits at 55.4% — the gap is large and I side with the market here. Wheeler (3.40 ERA, 10.71 K/9, 1.09 WHIP) is a clear class comparison over Kikuchi (6.25 ERA, 1.58 WHIP), and PHI's 5.3 RPG and 76-60 record back it. Kikuchi's WHIP against that offense in a neutral park nudges me slightly over 7.5.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Zack WheelerPHI starter / away
Projected K7.2Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +120 betrivers / U -118 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.583%over
O 5.571%over
O 6.557%under
O 7.543%under
O 8.530%under
O 9.520%under
O 10.512%under
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Yusei KikuchiLAA starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +112 betrivers / U -111 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.518%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-170 / +144PHI / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total