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CLE 4 / LAA 3
CLECleveland Guardians49%
LAALos Angeles Angels51%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterJoey CantilloConfirmed
Model pickLAA moneyline51%Model 20260824_auto
LAAHome starterGrayson RodriguezConfirmed
CLE49%ML -138
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
LAA51%ML +120

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.5 pts

Model takes LAA at 51% against a market implying 43.5%, but the mismatch flag is deserved: Cleveland has the better record (67-66 vs 52-81) and scores 5.1 RPG to LAA's 3.9. Rodriguez's 6.41 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over 66 IP is a poor matchup against Cantillo (3.73 ERA, 9.94 K/9). Total sits near market at 8.62 vs 8.5, no comparison.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.6
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Joey CantilloCLE starter / away
Projected K6.2Actual 1 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -138 draftkings / U +112 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 6.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%under
O 2.594%under
O 3.585%under
O 4.573%under
O 5.558%under
O 6.542%under
O 7.529%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Grayson RodriguezLAA starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betmgm / U -135 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-138 / +120CLE / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -104 / U -118
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total