sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

CLE 8 / LAA 6
CLECleveland Guardians59%
LAALos Angeles Angels41%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterGavin WilliamsConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline59%Model 20260824_auto
LAAHome starterWalbert UreñaConfirmed
CLE59%ML -151
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
LAA41%ML +128

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.3 pts

Model (59.3%) and market (~58% implied on CLE -139) agree, and the fundamentals back it: Cleveland is 66-66 with 4.8 RPG versus a 52-80 Angels club at 3.9 RPG. The 9.03 model total is over two runs above the 7.0 line and looks structurally wrong with Ureña at 2.80 ERA and Williams at 3.72 with 11.7 K/9 and a 1.09 WHIP in a neutral park.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / away
Projected K8.8Actual 3 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +114 fanduel / U -130 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 8.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.597%under
O 4.592%under
O 5.585%under
O 6.575%under
O 7.563%under
O 8.550%under
O 9.538%under
O 10.527%under
O 11.519%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Walbert UrenaLAA starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 betmgm / U -135 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%under
O 4.561%under
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-151 / +128CLE / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total