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TEX 2 / LAA 5
TEXTexas Rangers47%
LAALos Angeles Angels53%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterCal QuantrillConfirmed
Model pickLAA moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
LAAHome starterGeorge KlassenConfirmed
TEX47%ML -132
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
LAA53%ML +113

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.9 pts

Model favors LAA (46-74, 2.2 RPG) despite worse record and offense, with Klassen at 7.27 ERA and a 2.88 WHIP over 8.7 IP. Quantrill's 3.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP across 65.7 IP is the steadier profile, and market agrees at -129. Both teams' low scoring rates plus Quantrill's control argue slightly under 9.0, tempered by Klassen's traffic risk.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cal QuantrillTEX starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 betonlineag / U -120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%over
O 3.549%over
O 4.530%over
O 5.517%over
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

George KlassenLAA starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 bovada / U -103 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-132 / +113TEX / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -112 / U -106
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total