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scheduled
MILMilwaukee Brewers55%
LAALos Angeles Angels45%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterJacob MisiorowskiProbable
Model pickMIL moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
LAAHome starterWalbert UreñaProbable
MIL55%ML -233
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability67%Selected moneyline pick
LAA45%ML +192

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap12.0 pts

Misiorowski (1.58 ERA, 13.88 K/9, 0.75 WHIP in 120 IP) is elite; market at -217 implies 68.4% MIL win vs model's 55.2%. Model systematically underweights ace performance. Ureña is solid (2.7 ERA) but MIL offense (4.5 RPG, .972 OPS) vs LAA (3.0 RPG, .86 OPS, 42-69) favors visitors. Ace matchup + model total 1.5 runs above market argues under 7.5.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / away
Projected K9.5
Best price at 9.59.5O +106 fanduel / U -121 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 9.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%
O 2.599%
O 3.598%
O 4.595%
O 5.589%
O 6.581%
O 7.571%
O 8.559%
O 9.547%
O 10.536%
O 11.526%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Walbert UrenaLAA starter / home
Projected K5.4
Best price at 4.54.5O -139 betrivers / U +120 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.589%
O 3.577%
O 4.562%
O 5.545%
O 6.530%
O 7.519%
O 8.511%
O 9.56%
O 10.53%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-233 / +192MIL / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+112)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total