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MIL 0 / LAA 3
MILMilwaukee Brewers55%
LAALos Angeles Angels45%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterJacob MisiorowskiConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
LAAHome starterWalbert UreñaConfirmed
MIL55%ML -226
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
LAA45%ML +189

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.8 pts

Misiorowski (1.58 ERA, 13.88 K/9, 0.75 WHIP in 120 IP) is elite; market at -217 implies 68.4% MIL win vs model's 55.2%. Model systematically underweights ace performance. Ureña is solid (2.7 ERA) but MIL offense (4.5 RPG, .972 OPS) vs LAA (3.0 RPG, .86 OPS, 42-69) favors visitors. Ace matchup + model total 1.5 runs above market argues under 7.5.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / away
Projected K9.5Actual 10 K / Over 9.5
Best price at 9.59.5O +112 betonlineag / U -135 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 9.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.598%over
O 4.595%over
O 5.589%over
O 6.581%over
O 7.571%over
O 8.559%over
O 9.547%over
O 10.536%under
O 11.526%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Walbert UrenaLAA starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -137 betrivers / U +120 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%over
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-226 / +189MIL / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+109)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total