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TEX 4 / LAA 1
TEXTexas Rangers47%
LAALos Angeles Angels53%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterMacKenzie GoreConfirmed
Model pickLAA moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
LAAHome starterReid DetmersConfirmed
TEX47%ML -112
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
LAA53%ML -105

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.5 pts

Model takes LAA (45-73, 2.4 RPG) over TEX (59-59, 3.5 RPG) despite worse record and worse scoring output, which the mismatch flag correctly flags. Market is a near pickem with TEX -111; I side with Texas at that price. Model's 9.33-run total sits well above the 8.0 line while both offenses average under 3.6 RPG and both starters carry sub-1.25 WHIPs with 9.8+ K/9, so I lean under.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / away
Projected K6.1Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +104 betrivers / U -120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 6.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.556%over
O 6.540%over
O 7.527%over
O 8.517%over
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Reid DetmersLAA starter / home
Projected K6.2Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -121 betrivers / U +111 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.573%over
O 5.558%over
O 6.543%under
O 7.529%under
O 8.519%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-112 / -105TEX / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total