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HOU 7 / LAA 4
HOUHouston Astros46%
LAALos Angeles Angels54%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
HOUAway starterHayden WesneskiConfirmed
Model pickLAA moneyline54%Model 20260727_auto
LAAHome starterGrayson RodriguezConfirmed
HOU46%ML -131
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
LAA54%ML +110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.5 pts

Model likes LAA at 54% but market has HOU favored at 55%. Away pitcher is fallback (no resolved stats for Wesneski), making this structural noise. Rodriguez's 8.54 ERA in 39 IP is legitimately bad. Model's offense_defense_mismatch flag confirms LAA has worse record AND worse offense (2.9 RPG vs HOU 4.7). Defer to market, take HOU lightly.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.6
Market total9.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Hayden WesneskiHOU starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -122 draftkings / U +102 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Grayson RodriguezLAA starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +122 fanduel / U -142 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-131 / +110HOU / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -109 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total