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HOU 3 / LAA 2
HOUHouston Astros55%
LAALos Angeles Angels45%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
HOUAway starterPeter LambertConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
LAAHome starterReid DetmersConfirmed
HOU55%ML -110
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
LAA45%ML -109

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.6 pts

Model leans HOU at 55.2%, market is dead even at 50.5%. Lambert's 3.03 ERA in 98 IP is legitimate, Detmers' 4.05 is adequate. HOU's 4.6 RPG offense vs LAA's 2.8 supports the away side. Model total of 8.69 vs market 8.0 suggests moderate over lean given neutral park.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Peter LambertHOU starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +112 draftkings / U -120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Reid DetmersLAA starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +112 fanduel / U -132 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.523%over
O 8.514%over
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-110 / -109HOU / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total