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STL 2 / LAA 3
STLSt. Louis Cardinals55%
LAALos Angeles Angels45%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterKyle LeahyConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline55%Model 20260720_auto
LAAHome starterJosé SorianoConfirmed
STL55%ML -108
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
LAA45%ML -110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.8 pts

Model and market diverge slightly: model has STL at 54.9%, market implies 49.1% (virtual coin flip). Both pitchers solid (Soriano 3.49 ERA, Leahy 3.73 ERA) in adequate samples. Angels offense underwhelming at 4.0 RPG despite .860 OPS. Lean STL on better record but no strong comparison.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kyle LeahySTL starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -128 fanduel / U +120 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

José SorianoLAA starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -143 betrivers / U +130 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-108 / -110STL / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total