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BOS 7 / LAA 5
BOSBoston Red Sox47%
LAALos Angeles Angels53%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterRanger SuarezConfirmed
Model pickLAA moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
LAAHome starterRyan JohnsonConfirmed
BOS47%ML -163
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability41%Selected moneyline pick
LAA53%ML +136

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap12.6 pts

Model has LAA at 53% despite 36-53 record vs BOS 38-48; market strongly disagrees at BOS -157 (60% implied). Suarez (2.94 ERA, 9.34 K/9 in 88.7 IP) is a proven arm vs Johnson (7.40 ERA in 24.3 IP). Model's margin comparison comes from LAA's .860 OPS but defense matters—BOS allows 0.3 fewer RPG. Lean BOS side with market, under 8.0 given Suarez quality.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ranger SuarezBOS starter / away
Projected K6.2Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +112 betrivers / U -125 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 6.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.557%under
O 6.542%under
O 7.529%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Ryan JohnsonLAA starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +126 draftkings / U -146 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-163 / +136BOS / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-122)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total