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OAK 1 / LAA 4
OAKOakland Athletics58%
LAALos Angeles Angels42%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterAaron CivaleConfirmed
Model pickOAK moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
LAAHome starterSam AldegheriConfirmed
OAK58%ML -108
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
LAA42%ML -110

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.5 pts

Model has OAK 58.3%, market implies 53.3% — modest 5pt comparison. The real story is the total: model projects 7.82, market set at 9.5, a 1.7-run gap. Both offenses are struggling (LAA 0.1 RPG, OAK 0.9 RPG in limited data shown). Angel Stadium neutral park. Model's under lean makes sense; side pick is marginal.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.2
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Aaron CivaleOAK starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betmgm / U -159 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%under
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Sam AldegheriLAA starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -154 betonlineag / U +134 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-108 / -110OAK / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -102 / U -118
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total