sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

BAL 6 / LAA 7
BALBaltimore Orioles48%
LAALos Angeles Angels52%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterTrey GibsonConfirmed
Model pickLAA moneyline52%Model 20260622_auto
LAAHome starterJosé SorianoConfirmed
BAL48%ML -102
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
LAA52%ML -116

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#12
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.2 pts

Model has LAA 51.7% vs market 53.5%—near consensus coin flip. BAL offense is anemic (1.1 RPG, .662 OPS) but LAA's 1.4 RPG is also bottom-tier. Gibson's 5.81 ERA in 26 IP suggests exploitability but Soriano's 3.03 ERA in 92 IP is legitimate. Market total 9.5 vs model 8.0 indicates value on under given both offenses struggling.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Trey GibsonBAL starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -105 betmgm / U -103 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

José SorianoLAA starter / home
Projected K6.4Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +110 betonlineag / U -122 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 6.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.575%under
O 5.560%under
O 6.545%under
O 7.531%under
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-102 / -116BAL / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-139)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -112 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total