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TBR 8 / LAA 3
TBRTampa Bay Rays42%
LAALos Angeles Angels58%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterCasey LeguminaConfirmed
Model pickLAA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
LAAHome starterGrayson RodriguezConfirmed
TBR42%ML -121
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
LAA58%ML +100

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap9.8 pts

Model has LAA at 57.5% vs market's 47.9% — a 9.6pp gap triggers market_disagreement_large. Rodriguez's 8.10 ERA in 23.1 IP is poor; Legumina's 3.07 ERA in 29.1 IP is stronger but only 1 start. Market likely correct fading Angels at home. Siding with TBR but low confidence given thin pitcher data.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Casey LeguminaTBR starter / away
Projected K2.1Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.562%under
O 2.536%under
O 3.517%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Grayson RodriguezLAA starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -140 fanatics / U +122 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%under
O 2.588%under
O 3.574%under
O 4.557%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-121 / +100TBR / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total