MLB / mlb / live
HOU 1 / LAA 10HOUHouston Astros46%
LAALos Angeles Angels54%
at Angel Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterKai-Wei Teng
Model pickLAA moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
LAAHome starterWalbert Ureña
HOU46%ML -125
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
LAA54%ML +105
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.3 pts
Both pitchers show 0.00 ERA but with only 1.2 IP (Ureña) and 2.1 IP (Teng) of season data—these are openers or bulk relievers, not traditional starters. The ace_matchup flag fired incorrectly on tiny samples. Model's 9.14 total vs market 8.5 is a 0.64-run gap, but without knowing actual starter usage patterns, I have no comparison. Pass on side and total.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-125 / +105HOU / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -118 / U -103
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total