MLB / mlb / live
NYM 3 / LAA 4NYMNew York Mets42%
LAALos Angeles Angels58%
at Angel Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterNolan McLean
Model pickLAA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
LAAHome starterReid Detmers
NYM42%ML -132
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
LAA58%ML +111
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanOver
Model-market gap12.6 pts
Model likes LAA at 58% vs market's 45%, a 13-point gap flagged as large disagreement. Both teams 3.8 RPG, similar offensive profiles. Model total 8.98 vs market 7.5 is 1.48 runs apart—structural miss likely. With market_disagreement_large firing and thin pitcher samples (4.2 IP, 5.0 IP), defer to market on side. Lean over on total given model's run projection and Angel Stadium neutral park.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.0
Market total7.8
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-132 / +111NYM / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.8O -111 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total