MLB / mlb / live
TOR 3 / LAA 7TORToronto Blue Jays47%
LAALos Angeles Angels53%
at Angel Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterEric Lauer
Model pickLAA moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
LAAHome starterJosé Soriano
TOR47%ML +135
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
LAA53%ML -159
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.6 pts
Model has LAA at 53.4%, market implies 58.3% — lean with the market. Soriano's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is extreme small sample. Lauer's 15.19 K/9 in 5.1 IP also tiny. Ace flag fires but neither pitcher has volume. Total: model 9.28 vs market 8.0 suggests under.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+135 / -159TOR / LAA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+133)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total