MLB / mlb / live
TOR 3 / LAA 7TORToronto Blue Jays47%
LAALos Angeles Angels53%
at Angel Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterEric Lauer
Model pickLAA moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
LAAHome starterJosé Soriano
TOR47%ML +135
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
LAA53%ML -159
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.9 pts
Model has LAA at 53.4%, market implies 58.3% — lean with the market. Soriano's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is extreme small sample. Lauer's 15.19 K/9 in 5.1 IP also tiny. Ace flag fires but neither pitcher has volume. Total: model 9.28 vs market 8.0 suggests under.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+135 / -159TOR / LAA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+133)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total