MLB / mlb / live
TOR 5 / LAA 2TORToronto Blue Jays56%
LAALos Angeles Angels44%
at Angel Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterDylan Cease
Model pickTOR moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
LAAHome starterReid Detmers
TOR56%ML -125
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
LAA44%ML +106
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.6 pts
Model predicts 9.21 runs vs market 7.5—a 1.71-run gap triggers structural concern. Cease (1.69 ERA, 20.25 K/9 in 5.1 IP) is elite early but tiny sample. Detmers' 17.36 K/9 in 4.2 IP is also unsustainable. Model likely overweighting small-sample strikeout rates. Market total seems sharper; lean under. TOR pick is mild given tight market odds.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-125 / +106TOR / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-157)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total