MLB / mlb / live
SDP 2 / LAA 1SDPSan Diego Padres49%
LAALos Angeles Angels51%
at Angel Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterMichael King
Model pickLAA moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
LAAHome starterWalbert Ureña
SDP49%ML -115
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
LAA51%ML -104
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.0 pts
Model favors LAA at 57.5% but market leans SDP (51.4% implied). SDP has better record (14-7 vs 11-11) and King's 0.00 ERA in 5.0 IP (small sample) faces Detmers' 5.79 ERA. Model overweights LAA's .860 OPS vs SDP's .547, but disagrees with market by 9 points. Lean with SDP and market consensus. Total 9.13 vs market 8.5 suggests over lean given Angel Stadium neutral park.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-115 / -104SDP / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total