MLB / mlb / live
SDP 2 / LAA 1SDPSan Diego Padres49%
LAALos Angeles Angels51%
at Angel Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterMichael King
Model pickLAA moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
LAAHome starterWalbert Ureña
SDP49%ML -115
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
LAA51%ML -104
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanOver
Model-market gap1.8 pts
Model favors LAA at 57.5% but market leans SDP (51.4% implied). SDP has better record (14-7 vs 11-11) and King's 0.00 ERA in 5.0 IP (small sample) faces Detmers' 5.79 ERA. Model overweights LAA's .860 OPS vs SDP's .547, but disagrees with market by 9 points. Lean with SDP and market consensus. Total 9.13 vs market 8.5 suggests over lean given Angel Stadium neutral park.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-115 / -104SDP / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total