MLB / mlb / live
CLE 2 / KCR 3CLECleveland Guardians58%
KCRKansas City Royals42%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterParker MessickConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline58%Model 20260921_auto
KCRHome starterDaniel Lynch IVConfirmed
CLE58%ML -110
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
KCR42%ML -110
Projection Context
Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.4
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Parker MessickCLE starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +100 betonlineag / U -115 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.573%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%under
O 3.573%under
O 4.556%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Daniel Lynch IVKCR starter / home
Projected K3.0Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +109 draftkings / U -125 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 3.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%over
O 2.556%under
O 3.534%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-110 / -110CLE / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -2 / U -120
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total