MLB / mlb / live
CLE 11 / KCR 5CLECleveland Guardians57%
KCRKansas City Royals43%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterTanner BibeeConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline57%Model 20260921_auto
KCRHome starterMichael WachaConfirmed
CLE57%ML -114
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
KCR43%ML -105
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Tanner BibeeCLE starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -122 fanduel / U +105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.519%over
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Michael WachaKCR starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -139 betonlineag / U +121 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.568%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-114 / -105CLE / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -108 / U -113
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total