MLB / mlb / live
CLE 12 / KCR 9CLECleveland Guardians58%
KCRKansas City Royals42%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterGavin WilliamsConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline58%Model 20260921_auto
KCRHome starterNoah CameronConfirmed
CLE58%ML -142
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
KCR42%ML +120
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total8.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / away
Projected K7.3Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -122 fanduel / U -103 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 6.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.592%over
O 4.584%under
O 5.572%under
O 6.558%under
O 7.544%under
O 8.531%under
O 9.521%under
O 10.513%under
O 11.58%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Noah CameronKCR starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 fanduel / U -157 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-142 / +120CLE / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -114 / U -106
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total