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live
CHWChicago White Sox47%
KCRKansas City Royals53%

at Kauffman Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterDavid SandlinConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline53%Model 20260921_auto
KCRHome starterRandy DobnakConfirmed
CHW47%ML -139
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
KCR53%ML +118

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.3 pts

Model picks KCR despite a 13-game worse record and 4.0 RPG vs CHW's 5.7 with .729 OPS — the mismatch flag is a red flag. Dobnak's 3.08 ERA over 73 IP with 5.92 K/9 is soft-contact dependent; Sandlin's 6.29 ERA is thin over 34 IP. Kauffman at 1.094 PF nudges me over 9.0.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
David SandlinCHW starter / away
Projected K3.5
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%
O 2.568%
O 3.547%
O 4.528%
O 5.515%
O 6.57%
O 7.53%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Randy DobnakKCR starter / home
Projected K4.3
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.579%
O 3.561%
O 4.542%
O 5.526%
O 6.515%
O 7.58%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-139 / +118CHW / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-141)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total