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CHW 14 / KCR 11
CHWChicago White Sox47%
KCRKansas City Royals53%

at Kauffman Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterAnthony KayConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline53%Model 20260921_auto
KCRHome starterDaniel Lynch IVConfirmed
CHW47%ML -120
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
KCR53%ML +100

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.3 pts

Model takes KCR despite a 67-89 record, 3.2 RPG and .518 OPS against a CHW side at 4.8 RPG and .729 OPS — classic offense/defense mismatch. Market is near pick'em at home +103, so the model's 52.6% is a small comparison on the wrong side. Lynch's 3.29 ERA and 1.07 WHIP are real, but the lineup gap is 1.6 runs. Model's 8.92 total is park-driven; KCR's offense argues under 8.0.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Anthony KayCHW starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +115 betmgm / U -134 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%over
O 3.548%over
O 4.530%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Daniel Lynch IVKCR starter / home
Projected K3.3Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +112 fanduel / U -132 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%under
O 3.543%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-120 / +100CHW / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -111
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total