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TOR 1 / KCR 6
TORToronto Blue Jays50%
KCRKansas City Royals50%

at Kauffman Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterSpencer ArrighettiConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline50%Model 20260831_auto
KCRHome starterRandy DobnakConfirmed
TOR50%ML -121
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
KCR50%ML +102

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.4 pts

Model lands on KCR at 50.2% versus market 47.8%, but that pick fights both the record (72-71 vs 63-80) and the offense gap (TOR 5.5 RPG, .786 OPS vs KCR .518 OPS). Dobnak's 2.65 ERA sits on a 1.39 WHIP and 6.24 K/9, a profile that regresses. Kauffman at 1.094 PF plus Arrighetti's 4.82 ERA nudges me slightly over 9.5.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.8
Market total9.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Spencer ArrighettiTOR starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -102 fanduel / U +115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Randy DobnakKCR starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +100 betmgm / U +125 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 2.570%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.549%under
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-121 / +102TOR / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total