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DET 2 / KCR 5
DETDetroit Tigers46%
KCRKansas City Royals54%

at Kauffman Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterTroy MeltonConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline54%Model 20260817_auto
KCRHome starterNoah CameronConfirmed
DET46%ML -105
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
KCR54%ML -113

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.6 pts

Model leans KCR at 53.7% versus market 48.1%, driven largely by away-pitcher rolling-window features. Melton's 1.49 ERA and 0.96 WHIP against Cameron's 4.16 ERA and 1.22 WHIP is the clearer signal, and Detroit has the better record (61-66 vs 55-74). Kauffman's 1.09 park factor argues up, but the pitching comparison supports under 8.0.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Troy MeltonDET starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 betmgm / U -120 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Noah CameronKCR starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betmgm / U -137 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%under
O 3.578%under
O 4.562%under
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-105 / -113DET / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-185)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total