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OAK 5 / KCR 9
OAKOakland Athletics39%
KCRKansas City Royals61%

at Kauffman Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterMason BarnettConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline61%Model 20260817_auto
KCRHome starterMichael WachaConfirmed
OAK39%ML +155
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
KCR61%ML -185

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.7 pts

Model (61.3%) and market (64%) both favor KCR; the pitching comparison is real with Wacha at 3.46 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 150.7 IP versus Barnett's 6.16 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in just 38 IP. On the total I part with the model's 9.73: both offenses carry sub-.520 OPS, and Wacha's WHIP is the most reliable data point here, offsetting Kauffman's 1.09 park factor.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.3
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Mason BarnettOAK starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +115 betrivers / U -142 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.567%under
O 3.546%under
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Michael WachaKCR starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 betonlineag / U -120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+155 / -185OAK / KCR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+108)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total