MLB / mlb / live
CHC 10 / KCR 2CHCChicago Cubs58%
KCRKansas City Royals42%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterMatthew BoydConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline58%Model 20260803_auto
KCRHome starterRandy DobnakConfirmed
CHC58%ML -165
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
KCR42%ML +140
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.1
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Matthew BoydCHC starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +107 betonlineag / U -117 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Randy DobnakKCR starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -130 draftkings / U +112 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 2.567%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-165 / +140CHC / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -104 / U -115
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total