MLB / mlb / live
CHC 3 / KCR 6CHCChicago Cubs58%
KCRKansas City Royals42%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterClay HolmesConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline58%Model 20260803_auto
KCRHome starterSeth LugoConfirmed
CHC58%ML -159
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
KCR42%ML +133
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Clay HolmesCHC starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 1 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%under
O 2.570%under
O 3.549%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Seth LugoKCR starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +139 betonlineag / U -134 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-159 / +133CHC / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-118)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -113 / U -106
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total