sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

SFG 4 / KCR 5
SFGSan Francisco Giants46%
KCRKansas City Royals54%

at Kauffman Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterLanden RouppConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline54%Model 20260720_auto
KCRHome starterSeth LugoConfirmed
SFG46%ML -132
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
KCR54%ML +110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.2 pts

Model likes KCR 54% but market favors SFG at 52%. Both offenses are weak (.518/.388 OPS) but Kauffman PF 1.094 tilts total over 8.5. Roupp's 3.98 ERA and 9.17 K/9 in 104 IP edges Lugo's 4.39 ERA. offense_defense_mismatch flags model picking worse team; lean SFG.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Landen RouppSFG starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 betrivers / U -148 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.518%over
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Seth LugoKCR starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +103 draftkings / U -120 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-132 / +110SFG / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -121 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total