MLB / mlb / live
SDP 19 / KCR 2SDPSan Diego Padres38%
KCRKansas City Royals62%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterGermán MárquezConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline62%Model 20260713_auto
KCRHome starterNoah CameronConfirmed
SDP38%ML -103
Base model probability62%Moneyline only
KCR62%ML -115
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.3 pts
Model has KCR at 62% vs market 54%. Both starters mediocre (Cameron 4.89 ERA, Márquez 5.18 ERA over 10 GS each). Market total 10.0 runs seems high given pitcher quality; model 8.74 is more reasonable. Lean KCR but gap isn't structural.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.7
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Germán MárquezSDP starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +120 betonlineag / U -136 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%under
O 3.542%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Noah CameronKCR starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 fanduel / U -102 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%under
O 2.588%under
O 3.575%under
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-103 / -115SDP / KCR moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -110 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total