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SDP 1 / KCR 6
SDPSan Diego Padres37%
KCRKansas City Royals63%

at Kauffman Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterGriffin CanningConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline63%Model 20260713_auto
KCRHome starterRandy DobnakConfirmed
SDP37%ML -110
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
KCR63%ML -108

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.1 pts

Model has KCR at 63% vs market coin-flip, driven by Dobnak's 1.86 ERA in 9.7 IP (tiny sample). Canning's 6.47 ERA in 56 IP is real. Market total 11.0 vs model 8.77 is a 2+ run gap; pitcher park + Canning's struggles argue closer to market. Pass side, lean under.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total8.8
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Griffin CanningSDP starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 fanatics / U +105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Randy DobnakKCR starter / home
Projected K3.0Actual 3 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%over
O 2.556%over
O 3.534%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.58%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-110 / -108SDP / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-161)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -110 / U -111
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total