MLB / mlb / live
PHI 2 / KCR 5PHIPhiladelphia Phillies54%
KCRKansas City Royals46%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterAaron NolaConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline54%Model 20260629_auto
KCRHome starterLuinder AvilaConfirmed
PHI54%ML -135
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
KCR46%ML +114
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.2
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Aaron NolaPHI starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -155 betmgm / U +123 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.518%over
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Luinder AvilaKCR starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +136 fanduel / U -165 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-135 / +114PHI / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-137)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total