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PHI 6 / KCR 1
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies42%
KCRKansas City Royals58%

at Kauffman Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterJesús LuzardoConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline58%Model 20260629_auto
KCRHome starterMichael WachaConfirmed
PHI42%ML -157
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability41%Selected moneyline pick
KCR58%ML +131

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap16.2 pts

Model has KCR at 57.6% but market prices PHI -144 (59% implied). PHI scores 6.4 RPG vs KCR's 3.2, yet model backs the weaker offense. Luzardo (3.88 ERA, 10.73 K/9) is the sharper arm than Wacha. Market disagreement flag valid; side with PHI and the market read.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +117 betrivers / U -130 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 6.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.534%over
O 7.521%over
O 8.513%over
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Michael WachaKCR starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -116 betonlineag / U +106 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-157 / +131PHI / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-126)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total