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TBR 5 / KCR 2
TBRTampa Bay Rays48%
KCRKansas City Royals52%

at Kauffman Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterIan SeymourConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline52%Model 20260629_auto
KCRHome starterStephen KolekConfirmed
TBR48%ML -124
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
KCR52%ML +105

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.6 pts

Market has TBR at 54.7% implied, model has KCR at 52.5%—essentially a coin flip. TBR's .802 OPS vs KCR's .518 is a massive offensive gap (49-33 vs 35-51 records). Model picking the inferior offense triggers offense_defense_mismatch flag. Kauffman PF 1.094 is hitter-friendly but market total 10.5 already prices that in; model's 9.87 suggests under lean.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.3
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ian SeymourTBR starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 betonlineag / U -120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.521%over
O 6.511%over
O 7.55%over
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Stephen KolekKCR starter / home
Projected K3.4Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +139 draftkings / U -162 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%under
O 2.566%under
O 3.545%under
O 4.527%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-124 / +105TBR / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -110 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total