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MLB / mlb / live

TBR 4 / KCR 0
TBRTampa Bay Rays44%
KCRKansas City Royals56%

at Kauffman Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterShane McClanahanConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
KCRHome starterSeth LugoConfirmed
TBR44%ML -150
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
KCR56%ML +125

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap13.3 pts

Model favors KCR at 55.9% but market has TBR as -129 favorite (56.4% implied). Model is picking the worse team (35-50 vs 48-33) with worse offense (.518 OPS vs .802). McClanahan's 3.30 ERA and 8.92 K/9 profile as the stronger starter. Defer to market on side; total at 10.5 is too close to model's 10.18 to lean either way.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shane McClanahanTBR starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 bovada / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Seth LugoKCR starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 fanatics / U +118 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.528%over
O 5.515%over
O 6.57%over
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-150 / +125TBR / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-122)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total