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STL 12 / KCR 10
STLSt. Louis Cardinals57%
KCRKansas City Royals43%

at Kauffman Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterDustin MayConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline57%Model 20260616_auto
KCRHome starterStephen KolekConfirmed
STL57%ML -128
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
KCR43%ML +110

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap2.7 pts

Model has STL 56.8%, market implies 53.1% — modest comparison. Model total 10.01 vs market 8.5 is a 1.5-run gap triggering the flag. Kauffman PF 1.094 favors offense. STL's .812 OPS vs KCR's .518 is stark. Kolek's 2.68 ERA in 50 IP is promising but small sample. Model likely right direction on both but lean confidence given total disagreement.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Dustin MaySTL starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 betmgm / U -165 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%under
O 3.572%under
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Stephen KolekKCR starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 betmgm / U -112 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.576%under
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-128 / +110STL / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total