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STL 6 / KCR 14
STLSt. Louis Cardinals55%
KCRKansas City Royals45%

at Kauffman Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterMatthew LiberatoreConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
KCRHome starterNoah CameronConfirmed
STL55%ML -105
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
KCR45%ML -114

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap5.5 pts

Model has STL at 54.5% while market is nearly even (48.1% STL implied). Both starters mid-4s ERA, park slightly hitter-friendly. Model margin of -0.75 suggests tight game, total 9.1 vs market 9.0 is aligned. No structural comparison apparent, slight lean to STL on better offense (.812 vs .518 OPS).

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -157 betrivers / U +135 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%under
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Noah CameronKCR starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +122 draftkings / U -140 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-105 / -114STL / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total